Betting on NHL games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NHL games is difficult due to close and low scores frequently dependent on redirections, tip-ins and other random events, and NHL odds and NHL goal spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.
Our goal is to make betting on NHL games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022-2023 NHL regular season. All of the results are available on our web site at NHL Statistics 2022-2023 (and we will continue to add more) but here are some of the highlights:
Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game
Home Team: 3.3
Away Team: 3.1
Total Both Teams: 6.4 (For Over/Under Bets)
So what we are talking about is the average game being decided by 0.2 goals or 1/5 of a goal, making that small redirect of a slap shot from the point a potential game changer.
Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Days of Rest
NHL teams play 82 games in about 26 weeks or just over 3 games per week, meaning most of the time teams have 1 or 2 days off between games. However, sometimes they play "back to backs" with no days off and occasionally have more than two days off between games. One might expect that teams play better with more days of rest between games. Here are the results of our study:
HOME GAMES
Days off Average Goals Opponent Total Spread
0 3.21 3.31 6.52 -0.10
1 3.24 3.07 6.31 0.17
2 3.32 3.17 6.50 0.15
3 3.22 2.83 6.05 0.40
4 3.31 2.85 6.15 0.46
5 3.67 2.33 6.00 1.33
AWAY GAMES
Days off Average Goals Opponent Total Spread
0 2.88 3.38 6.26 -0.49
1 3.16 3.20 6.36 -0.05
2 3.23 3.30 6.53 -0.07
3 3.00 3.28 6.28 -0.28
4 2.75 3.58 6.33 -0.83
5 2.33 3.33 5.67 -1.00
TOTAL ALL GAMES
Days off Average Goals Opponent Total Spread
0 2.98 3.36 6.34 -0.37
1 3.20 3.14 6.34 0.07
2 3.28 3.23 6.51 0.05
3 3.14 2.99 6.13 0.15
4 3.04 3.20 6.24 -0.16
5 3.22 2.67 5.89 0.56
While not totally correlated, rest matters for NHL teams. Teams with no days off did very poorly on the road and not great at home. Beyond that, more days off helped teams playing at home but not necessarily on the road past 1 or 2 days.
Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Length of Road Trip
Much like the impact of days of rest, we would assume that the longer a road trip, the worse a team would play. Here we present the results based on how many consecutive games the team has played on the road. A "1" in the first column means it is the first game on the road after playing at home.
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE GAMES ON THE ROAD
Games Average Goals Opponent Total Spread
1 3.1 3.2 6.3 -0.1
2 3.0 3.4 6.4 -0.4
3 3.3 3.1 6.4 0.2
4 2.9 3.4 6.3 -0.6
5 3.1 3.4 6.5 -0.3
6 3.7 3.3 6.9 0.4
7 3.6 4.6 8.2 -1.0
The results are not dramatic other than the total number of goals increasing for teams on long road trips.
Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Month
The NHL season is long and tiring for players and it is possible that the impact of the long season could affect the number of goals scored in a game. Here are the average points per game scored by month for all teams.
Month Average Goals Per Team
Oct 3.17
Nov 3.18
Dec 3.15
Jan 3.13
Feb 3.19
March 3.29
April 3.11
SEASON 3.18
March is an outlier but in general the length of the season does not have an appreciable impact on the number of goals scored.
Wins and Losses in the NHL by Home and Away Teams
Home/Away Wins Winning Percentage
Home 687 52.4%
Away 625 47.6%
The home ice advantage in the NHL is far less than the NBA where home teams won 58% of games in 2022-23 and the NFL where 56% of home teams won in 2022. This is a reflection of the slim 0.2 goals advantage for the home team.
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