Betting on NBA games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NBA games is difficult due to close scores that many times come down to the last shot, and NBA odds and NBA point spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.
Our goal is to make betting on NBA games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022-2023 NBA regular season. All of the results are available on our web site at NBA Statistics 2022-2023 (and we will continue to add more) but here are some of the highlights:
Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game
Home Team: 115.9
Away Team: 113.5
Total Both Teams: 229.4 (For Over/Under Bets)
So what we are talking about is the average game being decided by one 3 point shot.
Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Days of Rest
NBA teams play 82 games in about 26 weeks or just over 3 games per week, meaning most of the time teams have 1 or 2 days off between games. However, sometimes they play "back to backs" with no days off and occasionally have more than two days off between games. One might expect that teams play better with more days of rest between games. Here are the results of our study:
HOME GAMES
Days off Average Points Opponent Total Spread
0 115.2 113.6 228.8 1.6
1 115.6 113.0 228.6 2.6
2 116.3 114.0 230.3 2.2
3 119.3 116.7 236.0 2.6
4 120.9 114.8 235.7 6.1
AWAY GAMES
Days off Average Points Opponent Total Spread
0 112.9 118.0 230.9 -5.1
1 113.5 115.4 228.9 -1.9
2 114.1 115.9 230.0 -1.8
3 116.8 114.8 231.6 2.1
4 NO DATA
TOTAL ALL GAMES
Days off Average Points Opponent Total Spread
0 113.8 116.2 230.0 -2.4
1 114.5 114.2 228.7 0.4
2 115.3 114.8 230.1 0.5
3 118.7 116.3 235.0 2.4
4 120.9 114.8 235.7 6.1
It is clear that the amount of rest matters for NBA teams. Teams with 3 days of rest averaged almost 5 points better versus their opponent than those playing on consecutive days and over 7 points better for road games. Having even 1 day off on the road was worth over 3 points.
Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Length of Road Trip
Much like the impact of days of rest, we would assume that the longer a road trip, the worse a team would play. Here we present the results based on how many consecutive games the team has played on the road. A "1" in the first column means it is the first game on the road after playing at home.
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE GAMES ON THE ROAD
Games Average Points Opponent Total Spread
1 113.8 116.3 230.1 -2.5
2 113.0 114.5 227.5 -1.5
3 112.9 116.1 229.0 -3.2
4 113.7 116.8 230.5 -3.1
5 113.4 118.5 231.9 -5.1
6 114.8 114.9 229.7 -0.1
7 116.8 123.5 240.3 -6.8
The results are not as dramatic as one would expect, with the results of the 6th consecutive road game somewhat surprising. However, the impact of having 3, 4, 5 or 7 consecutive games on the road does seem to impact teams negatively.
Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Month
The NBA season is long and tiring for players and it is possible that the impact of the long season could affect the number of points scored in a game. Here are the average points per game scored by month for all teams.
Month Average Points Per Team
Oct 113.5
Nov 112.7
Dec 114.7
Jan 115.6
Feb 114.8
March 115.6
April 116.3
SEASON 114.7
While not a straight line correlation, in general the number of points increased as the season wore on, perhaps due to defenses getting tired.
Wins and Losses in the NBA by Home and Away Teams
Home/Away Wins Winning Percentage
Home 714 58%
Away 516 42%
There is a huge home court advantage in the NBA. Despite the average number of points varying by only 2.4 between home and away teams, home teams won 58% of games, 38% more than road teams.
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