NFL Scores & Statistics 2022 Detailed Study & Analytics

Betting on NFL games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NFL games is difficult due to the unpredictable "Any Given Sunday" element to games and NFL odds and NFL point spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.

Our goal is to make betting on NFL games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022 NFL regular season. 

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game

Home Team: 22.9

Away Team: 20.9

Total Both Teams: 43.8 (For Over/Under Bets) 

Common perception is that the home team gets 3 point towards the NFL odds point spread, but we found the correct number to be 2.

These numbers can be broken down by team when at home:

TEAM	AT HOME	OPPONENT	TOTAL
ARIZONA CARDINALS	19.6	28.7	48.2
ATLANTA FALCONS	24.9	21.6	46.4
BALTIMORE RAVENS	19.1	17.4	36.5
BUFFALO BILLS	31.8	18.4	50.1
CAROLINA PANTHERS	22.1	19.8	41.9
CHICAGO BEARS	19.6	25.0	44.6
CINCINNATI BENGALS	28.7	18.0	46.7
CLEVELAND BROWNS	22.5	20.8	43.3
DALLAS COWBOYS	30.0	19.7	49.7
DENVER BRONCOS	18.0	18.3	36.3
DETROIT LIONS	33.1	25.3	58.4
GREEN BAY PACKERS	23.9	21.3	45.2
HOUSTON TEXANS	15.3	26.4	41.6
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	19.3	22.3	41.5
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	22.4	19.3	41.6
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	25.1	19.4	44.5
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS	27.1	26.1	53.3
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	21.8	22.6	44.4
LOS ANGELES RAMS	21.9	22.8	44.7
MIAMI DOLPHINS	21.6	15.5	37.1
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	27.0	25.2	52.2
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	19.5	17.9	37.4
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	21.3	20.6	41.9
NEW YORK GIANTS	22.3	21.8	44.1
NEW YORK JETS	18.6	19.5	38.1
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	26.9	18.8	45.7
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	19.9	18.3	38.1
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	28.0	14.8	42.8
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	22.1	19.8	41.9
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	21.4	22.2	43.7
TENNESSEE TITANS	18.1	20.6	38.8
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS	17.8	19.0	36.8

Here is the breakdown by teams on the road:

TEAM	WHEN AWAY	OPPONENT	TOTAL
ARIZONA CARDINALS	20.5	23.9	44.4
ATLANTA FALCONS	17.6	24.0	41.6
BALTIMORE RAVENS	21.9	19.6	41.4
BUFFALO BILLS	25.1	17.4	42.5
CAROLINA PANTHERS	18.5	24.5	43.0
CHICAGO BEARS	18.8	29.8	48.5
CINCINNATI BENGALS	24.1	21.8	45.9
CLEVELAND BROWNS	20.1	23.9	44.0
DALLAS COWBOYS	24.6	20.6	45.3
DENVER BRONCOS	15.9	23.7	39.6
DETROIT LIONS	19.4	24.9	44.3
GREEN BAY PACKERS	19.4	22.4	41.8
HOUSTON TEXANS	18.6	23.2	41.8
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	15.0	27.7	42.7
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	25.0	21.8	46.8
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	32.8	23.8	56.6
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS	19.8	23.2	43.0
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	24.1	22.6	46.7
LOS ANGELES RAMS	13.8	22.4	36.1
MIAMI DOLPHINS	24.9	30.6	55.4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	22.6	25.0	47.6
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	23.1	22.7	45.8
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	17.3	20.0	37.3
NEW YORK GIANTS	20.5	21.9	42.4
NEW YORK JETS	16.3	17.8	34.1
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	29.4	21.9	51.3
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	16.6	22.2	38.8
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	24.8	18.0	42.8
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	26.0	27.9	53.9
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	15.0	19.8	34.8
TENNESSEE TITANS	17.0	21.6	38.6
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS	20.1	21.5	41.6

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game by Day and Time

The common perception here is that Thursday night games are bad and low scoring. While we found this to be somewhat true, the variations are not great. All times below are ET.

Sunday 1 PM: Home 23.6    Away 20.4    Total 44.0   Spread: 3.2 

Sunday 4 PM: Home 23.1    Away 21.8    Total 44.9    Spread 1.3

Sunday Night: Home 23.3    Away  19.8   Total 43.1    Spread 3.5

Sunday Morn: Home: 21.3    Away: 23.0    Total 44.3    Spread (-1.7)

Mon Night:     Home: 19.7    Away: 20.5    Total 40.2    Spread (-0.8)

Thurs Night:    Home 18.9    Away: 22.1    Total 41.0     Spread (-3.2)

Notes:

Sunday 4 PM includes 4:05 and 4:25 games

Sunday AM is only 4 international games and home teams are not really at "home."

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game the Week After One Team Has a Bye

This is another area where we found the common perception to be somewhat inaccurate. One would assume that teams with a bye would come back strong the next week after an extra week of rest to heal minor nagging injuries.

Team With a Bye Previous Week: 21.9

Other Team: 21.2

Total Both Teams: 43.1 (For Over/Under Bets)

Teams with a Bye only outscored opponents the next week by 0.7 points.

However here the home and road split is significant:

  Team at Home With Bye Week Before: 22.9 Opponent: 18.3 Total: 41.2 Spread: 4.6

  Team Away With Bye Week Before: 20.2  Opponent: 26.1 Total: 46.3 Spread  (-5.9)

Teams with a bye had a bigger than average advantage the next week at home but did very poorly on the road.

Wins and Losses in the NFL by Home and Away Teams

                Home/Away    Wins    Winning Percentage

                Home               151         56%

                Away                118         44%

There is a huge home field advantage in the NFL. Despite the average number of points varying by only 2 between home and away teams, home teams won 56% of games, 27% more than road teams. There were 2 ties.

Wins and Losses in the NFL By Team Home vs. Away

TEAM	H/A	WINS	LOSSES	TIES	WIN%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	AWAY	3	5	0	37.50%
	HOME	1	8	0	11.11%
ARIZONA CARDINALS Total		4	13	0	23.53%
ATLANTA FALCONS	AWAY	1	7	0	12.50%
	HOME	6	3	0	66.67%
ATLANTA FALCONS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	AWAY	5	4	0	55.56%
	HOME	5	3	0	62.50%
BALTIMORE RAVENS Total		10	7	0	58.82%
BUFFALO BILLS	AWAY	6	2	0	75.00%
	HOME	7	1	0	87.50%
BUFFALO BILLS Total		13	3	0	81.25%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	AWAY	2	6	0	25.00%
	HOME	5	4	0	55.56%
CAROLINA PANTHERS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
CHICAGO BEARS	AWAY	1	7	0	12.50%
	HOME	2	7	0	22.22%
CHICAGO BEARS Total		3	14	0	17.65%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	AWAY	6	3	0	66.67%
	HOME	6	1	0	85.71%
CINCINNATI BENGALS Total		12	4	0	75.00%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	AWAY	3	6	0	33.33%
	HOME	4	4	0	50.00%
CLEVELAND BROWNS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
DALLAS COWBOYS	AWAY	4	4	0	50.00%
	HOME	8	1	0	88.89%
DALLAS COWBOYS Total		12	5	0	70.59%
DENVER BRONCOS	AWAY	1	8	0	11.11%
	HOME	4	4	0	50.00%
DENVER BRONCOS Total		5	12	0	29.41%
DETROIT LIONS	AWAY	4	4	0	50.00%
	HOME	5	4	0	55.56%
DETROIT LIONS Total		9	8	0	52.94%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	AWAY	3	5	0	37.50%
	HOME	5	4	0	55.56%
GREEN BAY PACKERS Total		8	9	0	47.06%
HOUSTON TEXANS	AWAY	3	6	0	33.33%
	HOME	0	7	1	0.00%
HOUSTON TEXANS Total		3	13	1	17.65%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	AWAY	2	6	1	22.22%
	HOME	2	6	0	25.00%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Total		4	12	1	23.53%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	AWAY	4	5	0	44.44%
	HOME	5	3	0	62.50%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Total		9	8	0	52.94%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	AWAY	7	2	0	77.78%
	HOME	7	1	0	87.50%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Total		14	3	0	82.35%
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS	AWAY	2	7	0	22.22%
	HOME	4	4	0	50.00%
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Total		6	11	0	35.29%
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	AWAY	5	4	0	55.56%
	HOME	5	3	0	62.50%
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Total		10	7	0	58.82%
LOS ANGELES RAMS	AWAY	1	7	0	12.50%
	HOME	4	5	0	44.44%
LOS ANGELES RAMS Total		5	12	0	29.41%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	AWAY	3	6	0	33.33%
	HOME	6	2	0	75.00%
MIAMI DOLPHINS Total		9	8	0	52.94%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	AWAY	5	3	0	62.50%
	HOME	8	1	0	88.89%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS Total		13	4	0	76.47%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	AWAY	4	5	0	44.44%
	HOME	4	4	0	50.00%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Total		8	9	0	47.06%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	AWAY	3	5	0	37.50%
	HOME	4	5	0	44.44%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
NEW YORK GIANTS	AWAY	4	4	0	50.00%
	HOME	5	3	1	55.56%
NEW YORK GIANTS Total		9	7	1	52.94%
NEW YORK JETS	AWAY	4	5	0	44.44%
	HOME	3	5	0	37.50%
NEW YORK JETS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	AWAY	7	1	0	87.50%
	HOME	7	2	0	77.78%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Total		14	3	0	82.35%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	AWAY	5	4	0	55.56%
	HOME	4	4	0	50.00%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS Total		9	8	0	52.94%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	AWAY	5	3	0	62.50%
	HOME	8	1	0	88.89%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Total		13	4	0	76.47%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	AWAY	4	4	0	50.00%
	HOME	5	4	0	55.56%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Total		9	8	0	52.94%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	AWAY	3	5	0	37.50%
	HOME	5	4	0	55.56%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Total		8	9	0	47.06%
TENNESSEE TITANS	AWAY	4	5	0	44.44%
	HOME	3	5	0	37.50%
TENNESSEE TITANS Total		7	10	0	41.18%
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS	AWAY	4	3	1	50.00%
	HOME	4	5	0	44.44%
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Total		8	8	1	47.06%

Home field advantage varied significantly across teams. The Atlanta Falcons won 66.7% of their home games but only 12.5% of their road games, the Miami Dolphins won 75% at home versus 33.3% on the road, and the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos also won a lot more at home than on the road. Miami can possibly be explained by visitors not being used to the heat and humidity and Denver the altitude and thin air.

In contrast, seven of the 32 teams performed better on the road than at home.

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