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NHL Scores & Statistics 2022-2023 Detailed Study & Analytics

 Betting on NHL games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NHL games is difficult due to close and low scores frequently dependent on redirections, tip-ins and other random events, and NHL odds and NHL goal spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.

Our goal is to make betting on NHL games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022-2023 NHL regular season. All of the results are available on our web site at NHL Statistics 2022-2023 (and we will continue to add more) but here are some of the highlights:

Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game

Home Team: 3.3

Away Team: 3.1

Total Both Teams: 6.4 (For Over/Under Bets) 

So what we are talking about is the average game being decided by 0.2 goals or 1/5 of a goal, making that small redirect of a slap shot from the point a potential game changer.

Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Days of Rest

NHL teams play 82 games in about 26 weeks or just over 3 games per week, meaning most of the time teams have 1 or 2 days off between games. However, sometimes they play "back to backs" with no days off and occasionally have more than two days off between games. One might expect that teams play better with more days of rest between games. Here are the results of our study:

HOME GAMES

Days off    Average Goals    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                  3.21                        3.31            6.52      -0.10

1                  3.24                        3.07            6.31       0.17

2                  3.32                        3.17            6.50       0.15

3                  3.22                        2.83            6.05       0.40

4                  3.31                        2.85            6.15       0.46

5                  3.67                        2.33            6.00       1.33

AWAY GAMES

Days off    Average Goals    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                 2.88                        3.38            6.26       -0.49

1                 3.16                        3.20            6.36       -0.05

2                 3.23                        3.30            6.53       -0.07

3                 3.00                        3.28            6.28       -0.28

4                 2.75                        3.58            6.33       -0.83

5                 2.33                        3.33            5.67       -1.00

TOTAL ALL GAMES

Days off    Average Goals    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                2.98                        3.36             6.34      -0.37

1                3.20                        3.14             6.34       0.07

2                3.28                        3.23             6.51       0.05

3                3.14                        2.99             6.13       0.15

4                3.04                        3.20             6.24      -0.16

5                3.22                        2.67             5.89       0.56

While not totally correlated, rest matters for NHL teams. Teams with no days off did very poorly on the road and not great at home. Beyond that, more days off helped teams playing at home but not necessarily on the road past 1 or 2 days.

Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Length of Road Trip

Much like the impact of days of rest, we would assume that the longer a road trip, the worse a team would play. Here we present the results based on how many consecutive games the team has played on the road. A "1" in the first column means it is the first game on the road after playing at home.

NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE GAMES ON THE ROAD

Games    Average Goals    Opponent    Total     Spread

1                3.1                         3.2               6.3        -0.1

2                3.0                         3.4               6.4        -0.4

3                3.3                         3.1               6.4         0.2

4                2.9                         3.4               6.3        -0.6

5                3.1                         3.4               6.5        -0.3

6                3.7                         3.3               6.9         0.4

7                3.6                         4.6               8.2        -1.0

The results are not dramatic other than the total number of goals increasing for teams on long road trips.

Average Number of Goals Scored in an NHL Game by Month

The NHL season is long and tiring for players and it is possible that the impact of the long season could affect the number of goals scored in a game. Here are the average points per game scored by month for all teams.

                Month    Average Goals Per Team

                Oct                 3.17

                Nov                3.18

                Dec                3.15

                Jan                 3.13

                Feb                3.19

                March            3.29

                April              3.11

                SEASON      3.18

March is an outlier but in general the length of the season does not have an appreciable impact on the number of goals scored.

Wins and Losses in the NHL by Home and Away Teams

                Home/Away    Wins    Winning Percentage

                Home               687         52.4%

                Away                625         47.6%

The home ice advantage in the NHL is far less than the NBA where home teams won 58% of games in 2022-23 and the NFL where 56% of home teams won in 2022. This is a reflection of the slim 0.2 goals advantage for the home team.

If there are some statistics you would like to see, please use the "Contact Us" form or leave a comment.

NBA Scores & Statistics 2022-2023 Detailed Study & Analytics

Betting on NBA games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NBA games is difficult due to close scores that many times come down to the last shot, and NBA odds and NBA point spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.

Our goal is to make betting on NBA games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022-2023 NBA regular season. All of the results are available on our web site at NBA Statistics 2022-2023 (and we will continue to add more) but here are some of the highlights:

Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game

Home Team: 115.9

Away Team: 113.5

Total Both Teams: 229.4 (For Over/Under Bets) 

So what we are talking about is the average game being decided by one 3 point shot.

Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Days of Rest

NBA teams play 82 games in about 26 weeks or just over 3 games per week, meaning most of the time teams have 1 or 2 days off between games. However, sometimes they play "back to backs" with no days off and occasionally have more than two days off between games. One might expect that teams play better with more days of rest between games. Here are the results of our study:

HOME GAMES

Days off    Average Points    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                115.2                     113.6             228.8    1.6

1                115.6                     113.0             228.6    2.6

2                116.3                     114.0             230.3    2.2

3                119.3                     116.7             236.0    2.6

4                120.9                     114.8             235.7    6.1

AWAY GAMES

Days off    Average Points    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                112.9                     118.0             230.9    -5.1

1                113.5                     115.4             228.9    -1.9

2                114.1                     115.9             230.0    -1.8

3                116.8                     114.8             231.6     2.1

4                NO DATA

TOTAL ALL GAMES

Days off    Average Points    Opponent    Total     Spread

0                113.8                     116.2             230.0    -2.4

1                114.5                     114.2             228.7     0.4

2                115.3                     114.8             230.1     0.5

3                118.7                     116.3             235.0     2.4

4                120.9                     114.8             235.7     6.1

It is clear that the amount of rest matters for NBA teams. Teams with 3 days of rest averaged almost 5 points better versus their opponent than those playing on consecutive days and over 7 points better for road games. Having even 1 day off on the road was worth over 3 points.

Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Length of Road Trip

Much like the impact of days of rest, we would assume that the longer a road trip, the worse a team would play. Here we present the results based on how many consecutive games the team has played on the road. A "1" in the first column means it is the first game on the road after playing at home.

NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE GAMES ON THE ROAD

Games    Average Points    Opponent    Total     Spread

1                113.8                     116.3          230.1    -2.5

2                113.0                     114.5          227.5    -1.5

3                112.9                     116.1          229.0    -3.2

4                113.7                     116.8          230.5    -3.1

5                113.4                     118.5          231.9    -5.1

6                114.8                     114.9          229.7    -0.1

7                116.8                     123.5          240.3    -6.8

The results are not as dramatic as one would expect, with the results of the 6th consecutive road game somewhat surprising. However, the impact of having 3, 4, 5 or 7 consecutive games on the road does seem to impact teams negatively.

Average Number of Points Scored in an NBA Game by Month

The NBA season is long and tiring for players and it is possible that the impact of the long season could affect the number of points scored in a game. Here are the average points per game scored by month for all teams.

                Month    Average Points Per Team

                Oct                113.5

                Nov               112.7

                Dec               114.7

                Jan                115.6

                Feb                114.8

                March            115.6

                April              116.3

                SEASON      114.7

While not a straight line correlation, in general the number of points increased as the season wore on, perhaps due to defenses getting tired.

Wins and Losses in the NBA by Home and Away Teams

                Home/Away    Wins    Winning Percentage

                Home               714         58%

                Away                516         42%

There is a huge home court advantage in the NBA. Despite the average number of points varying by only 2.4 between home and away teams, home teams won 58% of games, 38% more than road teams.

If there are some statistics you would like to see, please use the "Contact Us" form or leave a comment.

NFL Scores & Statistics 2022 Detailed Study & Analytics

Betting on NFL games is big business and becoming bigger as sports betting becomes legal in more and more states. Yet winning money betting on NFL games is difficult due to the unpredictable "Any Given Sunday" element to games and NFL odds and NFL point spreads meant to make every bet a 50/50 proposition. Bets are also typically an 11 to make 10 situation.

Our goal is to make betting on NFL games a little bit easier by providing data on historical games to help guide the individual bettor. Doing thorough research is the key to maximizing the probability of winning, and we have done extensive analysis of every game in the 2022 NFL regular season. All of the results are available on our web site at NFL Statistics 2022 (and we will continue to add more) but here are some of the highlights:

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game

Home Team: 22.9

Away Team: 20.9

Total Both Teams: 43.8 (For Over/Under Bets) 

Common perception is that the home team gets 3 point towards the NFL odds point spread, but we found the correct number to be 2.

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game by Day and Time

The common perception here is that Thursday night games are bad and low scoring. While we found this to be somewhat true, the variations are not great. All times below are ET.

Sunday 1 PM: Home 23.6    Away 20.4    Total 44.0   Spread: 3.2 

Sunday 4 PM: Home 23.1    Away 21.8    Total 44.9    Spread 1.3

Sunday Night: Home 23.3    Away  19.8   Total 43.1    Spread 3.5

Sunday Morn: Home: 21.3    Away: 23.0    Total 44.3    Spread (-1.7)

Mon Night:     Home: 19.7    Away: 20.5    Total 40.2    Spread (-0.8)

Thurs Night:    Home 18.9    Away: 22.1    Total 41.0     Spread (-3.2)

Notes:

Sunday 4 PM includes 4:05 and 4:25 games

Sunday AM is only 4 international games and home teams are not really at "home."

Average Number of Points Scored in an NFL Game the Week After One Team Has a Bye

This is another area where we found the common perception to be somewhat inaccurate. One would assume that teams with a bye would come back strong the next week after an extra week of rest to heal minor nagging injuries.

Team With a Bye Previous Week: 21.9

Other Team: 21.2

Total Both Teams: 43.1 (For Over/Under Bets)

Teams with a Bye only outscored opponents the next week by 0.7 points.

However here the home and road split is significant:

   Team at Home With Bye Week Before: 22.9 Opponent: 18.3 Total: 41.2 Spread: 4.6

   Team Away With Bye Week Before:  20.2  Opponent: 26.1 Total: 46.3 Spread  (-5.9)

Teams with a bye had a bigger than average advantage the next week at home but did very poorly on the road.

Wins and Losses in the NFL by Home and Away Teams

                Home/Away    Wins    Winning Percentage

                Home               151         56%

                Away                118         44%

There is a huge home field advantage in the NFL. Despite the average number of points varying by only 2 between home and away teams, home teams won 56% of games, 27% more than road teams. There were 2 ties.

If there are some statistics you would like to see, please use the "Contact Us" form or leave a comment.