Hold'em Poker Odds

Hold'em poker has become the dominant form of poker played in the United States and probably the world. Poker rooms at casinos and card rooms spread a number of limit and no limit Hold'em games and it is very difficult to find any other games such has Omaha and 7 Card Stud. It is the same for online poker. One of the reasons may be that the game seems so simple, as players have only two cards. But it is far from simple.

Experienced players will tell you they "play the player" rather than "play the cards," as knowing your opponent is a key component of a winning strategy. Many web sites have charts of what starting hands to play, those to throw away, and hand rankings. But there is still no substitute for knowing Hold'em poker odds and probabilities. No matter how well you know your opponents and how well you choose starting hands to play, you will not win calling pot and all-in bets with only an inside straight draw.

STARTING HAND HOLD'EM POKER ODDS

Any Pair: 5.88% (You should be dealt a pair once in every 17 hands.)

Pocket Aces: 0.45% (You should be dealt Pocket Aces approximately once in every 221 hands.) The same odds apply to Pocket Kings, Pocket Queens and every other pair. Assuming you are playing live in a full 9 or 10 person game that averages about 25-30 games per hour, this means you should be dealt Pocket Aces once every 7 hours. Same with every other pocket pair. This alone should be enough to convince you that you can't sit around waiting for high pocket pairs. If your game averages fewer hands per hour (which has been my experience), it will take longer to be dealt Pocket Aces.

Suited Hands: 23.53% (You should be dealt 2 cards of the same suit approximately once in every 4 hands.) This is a much higher probability than pocket pairs, but the question is how good the cards are. Low hands like 23 suited and hands with no straight possibility like 49 suited are still not playable in most circumstances.

Suited Connectors: 3.92% (You should be dealt 2 connected cards of the same suit approximately once in 25 hands.) As indicated above, not all suited connectors are created equal. Being dealt  23 of spades is not quite the same as AK.

Any Specific Suited Connector: 0.30% (You should be dealt any specific suited connectors approximately once in 333 hands.) What this means that being dealt AK suited (or AQ suited or KQ suited or QJ suited, etc.) is even more rare than being dealt Pocket Aces (or Kings or Queens).

A Single Ace: 14.48% (You should be dealt a single Ace approximately once in every 7 hands.) This is a lot more frequent than all of the above scenarios. Many amateur players will play any Ace, hoping to hit a pair of Aces on the flop. So if you see another player constantly calling or raising pre-flop, they may be following this strategy, which is a major mistake. Many unsuited Ace hands like A7, A8 and more are bad hands that should be thrown away pre-flop.

HOLD'EM POKER ODDS ON THE FLOP

Pair to Set: 11.76% (If you had a pair pre-flop, you should hit a set or three of a kind on the flop approximately 1 in 8 hands.) So the question is whether or not to play small pairs before the flop. If we assume that a pair of 2s, 3s, 4s etc. will not win if unimproved, but will win if you hit a set, then it may be worth playing them if you believe you can  ultimately get payoff 8 times your pre-flop bet.

Suited to Flush: 0.84% (If you had 2 suited cards pre-flop, you will hit a flush on the flop approximately 1 in 120 hands.) You should not expect to flop a flush too often.

Suited to Flush Draw: 10.94% (This is a lot more likely than hitting the flush. If you had 2 suited cards pre-flop, you will hit a flush draw on the flop approximately 1 in 9 hands.) This is when you get two of your suit on the flush but the third card is a different suit.

2 Unmatched Cards to 1 Pair or Better: 32.43% (If you had two random cards pre-flop, you will hit at least one pair every 3 hands.) This how amateur players justify playing garbage hands. Even the worst hands hit a pair or better frequently on the flop. The question is how often they win.

HOLD'EM POKER ODDS AFTER THE FLOP

Each category below shows two sets of probabilities. The first and higher number is the probability after the flop and includes the turn and river. The second and lower number is the probability after the turn.

Pair to Set: 8.40%/4.30% (If you had a pair after the flop, you should hit a set or three of a kind on the turn or river approximately 1 in 12 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 24 hands on the river.) 

Flush Draw to Flush: 34.97%/19.60% (If you had four of a suit after the flop, you will hit a flush on the turn or river more than 1 in 3 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 5 hands on the river.) But not all flush draws are created equal. If yours is one in your hand (and a low card) and three on the board, others may have the same draw and potentially a higher card in their hand than yours, meaning you might still hit the flush and lose.

Open End Straight Draw to Straight: 31.50%/17.40% (If you had four in a row after the flop, you will hit a straight on the turn or river almost 1 in 3 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 6 hands on the river.) These odds are slightly less then the flush draw with only 8 outs as compared to 9.

Inside Straight Draw to Straight: 16.50%/8.70% (If you had only one card that will make your straight after the flop, you will hit a straight on the turn or river about 1 in 6 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 12 hands on the river.) These odds are half of the open end straight draws and include straight draws like AKQJ and A234 that have only one end open.

Two Pair to Full House: 16.50%/8.70% (Odds are the same as hitting an inside straight draw, as you will hit a full house on the turn or river about 1 in 6 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 12 hands on the river.) If you miss; however, you will still have two pairs, which is often a winner anyway.

Set to Quads: 4.3%/2.2% (If you have a set after the flop, you will hit quads on the turn or river about 1 in 23 hands. If you miss on the turn, you should still hit it about 1 in 46 hands on the river.)  If you miss; however, you will still have a set, which is often a winner anyway.

More coming soon.